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Market Review After Peak Correction
Alan Fine • August 12, 2022
Market Review after a Peak Correction
After mortgage rates peaked at 6.0 percent in June, then corrected in early July to 4.875 percent for 30-year conforming loans. Corrections in mortgage rates are normal. The current improvement in the interest rate market does not change the overall upward trend of interest rates. The Fed is combating inflation, and they continue to move up their funds rates and allow their balance sheet of nine trillion in U.S. treasuries and mortgages to gradually run off. That means the assets that are maturing will not be replaced, which will reduce the size of the balance sheet assets. This is another way to reduce the demand for mortgages and treasures, causing upward pressures for treasury yields (rates) and mortgage rates.
The stock market gave back earlier gains for the year, and investors sought safety by moving into the Treasury and mortgage markets, which caused this easing phase of interest rates by the first of March 2025. The 10-year note yield (rate) dropped to 4.20%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.70%.
The Fed only directly controls short-term interest rates. The borrowing costs that matter most for consumers are medium and long-term interest rates. These rates are set in global bond markets by traders who are betting on countless factors, including how high and volatile inflation will turn out to be, the strength of growth and investment, and how much debt the U.S. government issues — and in turn how the Fed will react to all of that.
Though the initial market reaction of economic fears to falling global stock prices, fooled investors buying Treasury and easing rates to their recent lows occurring before the Fed Rate Cut. This is where the technical indicators show their value they indicated bottoming of rates. Since the Fed Cut, the Mortgage & Treasury Rates (Yields) shot significantly higher.
Debt Ceiling and Interest Payments: The ongoing debt ceiling faceoff highlights the underlying issues of US national debt growth and the acceleration of interest costs. The high US Debt is a major inflation factor that lead to high interest rates.
The 10Yr Note, is the benchmark instrument that is analyzed by technical tools. These tools charts & indicators provide an objective and consistent view of the major trend of rates.
Brief review of mortgage rates moving sharply higher before any Fed Funds changes.
This discusses the upward movements that occurred in the Bond & Mortgage rates prompted by rising inflation seen by the sharp increase in the Consumer Price Index that well exceeded the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2.0%. It is a myth the Fed has ultimate control of consumer & investors interest rates.
An insightful overview that early identified a major up trend of interest rates months before the Fed made their first increase in the Fed Funds Rate. The Past 13 yrs of easy money policy ending, and new cycle to follow is an uptrend for interest rates. Note Mortgage Rates were 3.10% when written.
This is a reprint from May 1995 as it discussing a time in history when the Fed was cutting rates and the Market Rates of Bonds moved higher. This divergence of Higher Treasury & Mortgage Rates occurred on the Sept 22024 Fed Cut It's helpful to know a little history as it can repeat itself.
This Article is a reprint that was published in “Mortgage Originator” magazine. A sophisticated description of market timing cycles and full range of technical indicators.
If you want to know where inter est rates are going, you've got lots of options. There are the technicians or self-described "chartists" who will tell you that if you just look at some plotted points on a graph you will see the future course of rates.